Russia began by annexing Crimea in 2014 and expanding the conflict in the eastern Donbas region. In February 2022, Russia initiated a full-scale war against Ukraine to prevent its NATO membership and alignment with the West. This conflict has resulted in numerous casualties and refugees. Currently, the fighting continues in eastern Ukraine with the help of international sanctions against Russia and Western military aid to Ukraine, but ceasefire negotiations remain at an impasse.
The Fateful Connection Between Two Countries Originating from Kievan Rus
[ wikipedia / Mongol invasion of Europe (1236-1242) ]
To understand the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we must go back to the medieval Kievan Rus era. The current capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, was the center of East Slavic culture from the 9th to the 13th century. In 988, Grand Prince Vladimir’s acceptance of Christianity laid the foundation for the Russian Orthodox Church. However, the city was completely destroyed by the Mongol invasion in 1240. This event prompted the Russian forces to move northeast, with the Grand Duchy of Moscow emerging as the new center.
This historical background has shaped the unique psychology of Russians, who perceive Ukraine as a “younger sibling with the same mother.” The perception that both countries originated from Kievan Rus has led to cultural and religious bonds, but it has also sown the seeds of conflict over the recognition of Ukraine’s independent identity.
The Scars of the Soviet Era: The Legacy of Holodomor and Collectivization Policies
[ wikipedia / Starving corpses rolling through the streets of Kharkiv in 1933 ]
In 1932, Stalin’s collectivization policy dealt a fatal blow to Ukrainian rural society. Farmers across the country were forced to hand over their livestock and farming tools to the state, leading to a catastrophic famine (Holodomor) that claimed over 5 million lives due to consecutive poor harvests. This event left a collective trauma among Ukrainians, particularly in rural areas, and became the root cause of their hostility towards Russia.
The urban-rural divide has influenced modern Ukrainian politics. Industrialized eastern urban areas have shown pro-Russian tendencies due to economic ties with Russia, while western rural areas have developed strong anti-Russian sentiments. This regional conflict was starkly evident during the 2004 Orange Revolution and the 2014 Euromaidan protests.
The Crimean Conflict: From Resort to Geopolitical Powder Keg
[ goodmorningvietnam / Crimea Peninsula map ]
The strategic importance of the Crimean Peninsula, located north of the Black Sea, has been repeatedly proven throughout history. In 1954, Khrushchev transferred this region to Ukraine for administrative convenience, which led to tensions between the two countries over the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s port after the Soviet Union’s dissolution. In 2014, following the collapse of the pro-Russian regime, Russia forcibly annexed Crimea under the pretext of “protecting Russian residents,” an act deemed a violation of international law and remains a contentious issue.
This event significantly altered Ukraine’s political landscape. The exclusion of 2 million Crimean residents, who were traditionally pro-Russian, from voting led to a paradoxical result of solidifying the political dominance of pro-Western forces within Ukraine.
The Donbas Civil War and the Failure of the Minsk Agreement
[ namu.wiki : Minsk agreements / Shaded areas are control and buffer areas ]
Following the annexation of Crimea, separatist movements intensified in the eastern Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk). The 2015 Minsk Agreement aimed to grant extensive autonomy to this region in exchange for a ceasefire, but the lack of implementation by both sides led to no substantial progress. Ukraine’s ban on the use of the Russian language (2019) and the freezing of pro-Russian assets (2021) further exacerbated the conflict.
The full-scale invasion by Russia in February 2022 was rooted in the failure of these peace agreements. The Putin regime chose military action to prevent Ukraine’s NATO membership and secure influence over the Donbas region.
International Intervention and the Stalemate of the War
[ AP Yonhap News: Ukrainian soldiers are firing self-propelled howitzers at Russian military positions near Bakhmut, a fierce battlefield in eastern Donetsk Oblast. ]
As the war drags on, the support policies of the US and the EU have become distinctly divided. The Biden administration has approved over $50 billion in military aid as of July 2024 to strengthen Ukraine’s combat capabilities, while former President Trump has proposed a negotiation-centered strategy, claiming he would “end the war within 24 hours.”
Trump’s plan includes maintaining the current occupied territories, delaying NATO membership for 20 years, and establishing a 1,200 km buffer zone. This attempt to find a compromise between easing EU security concerns and recognizing Russia’s current control is controversial as it presupposes the loss of Ukrainian territory.
Military Dynamics and Strategic Dilemmas
The Ukrainian military is using long-range missiles provided by the West (ATACMS and SCALP) to target bridges connecting Crimea and oil facilities within Russia, seeking to turn the tide of the war. Meanwhile, the Russian military is focusing on expanding occupied territories with human wave tactics and North Korean artillery.
The recent lifting of restrictions on missile use within Russian territory by the US increases the risk of war expansion. The battle in the Kursk region is unfolding fiercely, reminiscent of the historic battle of 1943, and the outcome of this region is expected to have a significant impact on the determination of the ceasefire line.
The Cost of Nuclear Disarmament: Ukraine’s Tragic Choice
At the time of its independence in 1991, Ukraine was the world’s third-largest nuclear power (with over 1,900 warheads). However, the decision to sign the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 and give up its nuclear arsenal has led to the current security crisis. The security guarantees from the US, UK, and Russia were completely nullified during the Crimea crisis, raising fundamental questions about the collective security system of the international community.
President Zelensky of Ukraine expressed deep regret, stating, “If we had nuclear weapons, we could have prevented the war.” However, due to current technical and economic limitations, re-nuclearization is practically impossible.
The Future of the War: Ceasefire Negotiations and Geopolitical Reorganization
[US President-elect Donald Trump (left) is holding a three-way meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron (center) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on the 7th. Paris = Reuters Yonhap News]
In the stalemate of the current war, the interests of major countries are sharply conflicting. The EU aims to maintain Ukraine as a buffer zone against Russia, while Russia seeks to secure access to the Black Sea and restore influence over Eastern Europe. The US is in a contradictory position, wanting a swift resolution of the European front under the larger strategic goal of containing China.
Experts view the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election as a key variable in determining the timing and conditions of the ceasefire. A scenario of Trump’s re-election suggests an early ceasefire with the current front line fixed, while Biden’s re-election indicates the possibility of a prolonged war of attrition.
Lessons from History: The Security Dilemma of Small States
[ Pixabay : Ukrainian people are protesting with flags. ]
The Ukraine crisis starkly reveals the harsh realities of international politics. The failure of the Budapest Memorandum demonstrates that security guarantees from major powers can be easily overturned with changing circumstances. This serves as a warning to other conflict-prone regions, including Taiwan.
The fate of small states trapped in the triple bind of the fragility of international law and peace agreements, the expansionist tendencies of regional powers, and the volatility of great power politics has emerged as a fundamental challenge for the 21st-century world order.
Conclusion: The Homework for Peace
The Russia-Ukraine war encompasses multiple layers of historical identity, geopolitical interests, and the reorganization of the international order, beyond a simple territorial dispute. While Russia bears the primary responsibility as the direct cause of the war, the expansionist alliance policies of the West and internal divisions within Ukraine have also contributed to the escalation of the conflict.
Achieving true peace requires political compromise rather than military solutions. Finding a balance between respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and addressing Russia’s reasonable security demands, restructuring the European security framework, and establishing a multilateral consultation system for trust recovery remain urgent tasks. This war reminds humanity once again of the futility of armed conflict and the importance of dialogue.